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UFC 113 & Boxing Predictions: I Reserve The Right To Be A Lazy Cuss

Law school applications jibber jabber and a general heat-related malaise have eaten my soul this week, so here’s the shortest predictions post ever! So lazy, I’m not even writing two separate ones for boxing and UFC!

Boxeo

Paul Williams vs. Kermit Cintron

The more I think about this fight, the more I like it. Williams should be favored and is, but… Kermit Cintron really is no joke. He can bang a little, and he’s out-boxed some good fighters before; Williams can be outboxed by a mover with power, and he was against Carlos Quintana. Cintron gets dinged for his losses in many quarters, but they consist of two KOs to a guy who may well have had loaded gloves, and a “draw” which was really a loss to the current middleweight champion of the world. That’s not exactly a jobber’s resume. I don’t think Cintron likes pressure and I think Williams’ combination of volume punching and decent power will let him take a late KO win here, but I honestly wouldn’t be totally shocked if Cintron pulled off the upset. It’s a really good matchup, and could be a fun fight especially for purists.

UFC

Main Card

* Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Lyoto Machida (c) vs. Mauricio Rua

They are what they are. With the possible exception of each man being more willing to go to the ground, I don’t see this fight being all that much different from the first fight- Machida has so far shown that he really only fights one way, and Shogun has to think that he won their first fight and can win a rematch against a monostylistic opponent doing the same thing. Factors to consider additionally may include that the judges will likely not be immune to the cries of “robbery” from the first fight, shading them towards Shogun; Machida may be able to adapt his style now that he knows to anticipate stalking/high guard/leg kicks; and perhaps Machida’s claims of “one bad night” had something to them (or perhaps not). The smart prediction here is Shogun, and I do believe he won their first encounter for whatever that’s worth. My instincts on this one still say Machida, but I am a weak, weak man and will go with head over heart and say Shogun. 5 round decision, competitive and close, which leads to calls for a wholly unnecessary rubber match about which people on the internet will use to bitch about Dana White, whether or not it actually happens.

* Welterweight bout: Josh Koscheck vs. Paul Daley

An IQ test for Koscheck: Kos is twice the wrestler Jake Shields is, and Shields clowned Daley out with wrestling and BJJ back in Strikeforce. If Koscheck wants to stand this is 60-40 in Daley’s favor; if he takes Daley down he’ll win easily, probably in the first round. I like Kos, I think he’s a smart guy, and with a TUF coaching opportunity and a title shot at GSP on the line for the winner here I doubt he’ll be too inclined to fuck around. Koscheck SUB1 (RNC). Takes him down, punches him until he turns over, chokes him stupid.

* Lightweight bout: Sam Stout vs. Jeremy Stephens

On the one hand, fun fight; on the other hand… third from the top? There’s nothing at all wrong with this fight, I’m just not sure there’s enough right with it to occupy this slot on the card. It’s a matchup of the American and Canadian versions of the exact same guy; Stephens is a little more experienced but a bit younger, Stout is closer to his athletic prime and has done slightly better against common opponents. Stout’s a better technician, Stephens probably has more power. Based on that and home field advantage, I’ll take Stout by decision in a fun brawl which goes all 3. Could be a fight of the night.

* Heavyweight bout: Kimbo Slice vs. Matt Mitrione

OK Player. Kimbo is Kimbo, and anyone good beats him; but I’m not sure if Mitrione qualifies. Let’s say he does, I guess. Sorta. Barely. KO3 when Kimbo’s lungs explode.

* Middleweight bout: Patrick Côté vs. Alan Belcher

Last time we saw Cote it was 18 months ago and he was furiously hopping away from Anderson Silva; last time we saw Belcher he was pounding an unfit Wilson Gouveia at a catchweight, and before that plodding through a crypto-controversial decision loss to Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 100. I can’t say I’m overwhelmed to see either man again, though it is a solid matchup. I like Belcher here, mostly because I don’t trust anyone out that long with a knee injury in their first fight back. Decision. Could be good, could be sloooooooooooow.

Preliminary Card

* Middleweight bout: Joe Doerksen vs.Tom Lawlor

I never like a late injury replacement and Lawlor looked pretty good last time out in a close decision loss to the very good Aaron Simpson, so let’s take him by KO in the second.

* Welterweight bout: Marcus Davis vs. Jonathan Goulet

An exciting matchup of guys who got knocked the screaming fuck out by fringe contenders in their previous fights. Davis is going to be done like Xiahou any minute now at age 36 and starting to fall back from his peak ability, but I suspect he’ll still have enough on his shots here to beat a guy who’s lost 7 times by KO and has never beaten anyone at Davis’s level bar a cut stoppage over Jay Hieron 5 years ago. Davis KO1. Maybe he’ll get that Hardy rematch he wants.

* Welterweight bout: TJ Grant vs. Johny Hendricks

We will learn something about Mr. Hendricks here. Me, I’m mostly a big fan; he fights in the somewhat sloppy style which Team Takedown guys seem to use until they learn better (think the difference between Jake Rosholt and Shane Roller) but he still has that wrestling background, and unlike those other two gentlemen he has ridiculous, God-given, one-punch KO power in his hands. That’s the sort of unteachable natural athletic advantage which guys need to be world-class in this sport these days, and Hendricks absolutely could be in time- he’s a bit like an evolutionary Josh Koscheck. That said, he does have a tendency to end up in positions which he would not and should not be in with a tighter and more disciplined style, and he’s facing a very strong BJJ player with 12 submissions in 15 wins who’s faced a few name-brand guys before. I think Hendricks can keep it standing and his power will tell leading to a 2nd round KO win, but this is a good test. In particular, it would be nice to see Hendricks fight a tighter, more controlled fight which gives someone like Grant fewer opportunities. He’s probably best off just bulling Grant into the cage and throwing from the clinch.

* Heavyweight bout: Tim Hague vs. Joey Beltran

Um, let’s go with Beltran. Hague’s just so slow. Decision.

* Welterweight bout: Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Mike Guymon

I like Triple Y fairly well when he’s allowed to fight people his own size and not weight-blowing alien supermen like Anthony Johnson; Guymon I’m less sure about. They’re the same age, though a couple of brutal KO losses probably have put some additional wear on Triple Y. On the other hand, he’s also fought better competition and as a judoka has one of those awkward-to-prepare-for styles. I’ll take him on that basis in an entertaining decision.

* Middleweight bout: Jason MacDonald vs. John Salter

It’s a young man’s sport for the most part, so I lean towards Salter especially with McDonald being a late replacement. Decision.

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May 7, 2010 - Posted by | Boxing, MMA

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