The Ship Be Sinking

Mouth Almighty

Oh Yeah, Boxing Picks

There’s a blog post on why I completely forgot about these upcoming. Anyway, a few quick picks for some of the bigger fights this weekend:

Victor Cayo vs. Marcos Maidana

I don’t have a strong read on these two having seen only one fight from Maidana and a bit less from Cayo. Frankly, I’m stunned that this is an HBO headliner- it’s a great fight on paper, but it is, frankly, a pair of tiny foreigners of the kind who don’t usually get this kind of attention from HBO. This pick is a semi-ass pull, but I think I like Maidana- I assume HBO thinks he can beat Cayo since they apparently want to do Maidana/Amir Khan at some point (far, far) down the road, and while I don’t like almost anything about Maidana on a technical level he is tough as nails and he does have 12 rounds and big power to work with. Cayo seems to drop his hands and go straight back at times, doing that I-wanna-be-Roy-Jones BS which has gotten more than one dude KO’d over the last 15 years. He doesn’t seen to have the power to hurt Maidana given that he didn’t have the power to hurt the husk of Julio Diaz and from what I’ve seen he’s rarely planted when he throws, so let’s say eventually Maidana catches up and erases him. 8th round?

Ali Funeka vs. Joan Guzman

Hate this fight. Hate it. Funeka bomb-dropped Guzman the first time and won almost every round but got fucked on the cards, leading to… a replay in which almost nothing is likely to change? Guzman’s 33 at a lighter weight where guys ages quicker, seemingly un(der)-motivated, has been battling his weight despite moving up and looked sluggish and old against Funeka last time out. He’s probably more talented and if he had his head together I could/can see him making adjustments which might let him win this fight, but… why is he getting the chance? He lost the first one, and it bothers me that he’s basically getting a free do-over in a high-profile spot on HBO’s dime. I don’t like to see judging incompetence ignored, and if they were going to show a second fight with Maidana/Cayo I’d rather be watching Kameda and Wonjongkam. Anyway, Funeka is still tall and has a great jab so I’ll say the next 12 rounds will be like the last 12 rounds and he’ll perform better over them. Maybe that’ll be enough to win this time.

On a side note, the worst part of this for a viewer? The first fight between these two was all kinds of fun and this one might be as well, except… you’ll sit there for all 12 rounds of it going “are the judges actually watching this? Is someone about to get F’d in the A again?” It’s impossible to relax and enjoy a fight under those circumstances, for me anyway.

Andre Gazelle vs. Arthur Abraham

Let us all really, really hope Abraham wins. He’s a better fighter, he has a better track record, he’s a bigger draw, he makes better fights, there’s a bunch of guys I’d like to see him against and no one I’d like to see Dirrell against, but…it’s just not a great style matchup for Abraham and maybe a worse one for viewers. Abraham pressures and grinds and blocks jabs with his great arm guard, but he doesn’t throw much and relies on his power to break guys down. Dirrell runs and dinks and dipsy-dos and dances and oscillates and flounces about the place throwing jabs which aren’t as effective as you’d like and little behind them, holding and grabbing and often making for God-awful fights- especially against guys with power like Abraham, who he sometimes seems scared of. The danger is that if you get bad judges who give Dirrell credit for jabs which get blocked or for “activity” which is ineffective,you could see Dirrell getting a really bad decision here, especially since he does seem to have a decent chin and is used to going rounds with his bad style. Bear in mind that this fight is in Dirrell’s home region and Abraham is infamous for giving away the early rounds. I’m warning you now this could be an excruciatingly bad fight, bad enough to take some of the stream out of the Super Six especially with Ward/Green delayed into June.

I’ll take Abraham, on the theory that Dirrell may try to plant his feet and open up more on offense which will give Abraham a target to hit, especially if Dirrell uses more grabbing than running which will bring him close enough to be tagged to the body and worn down. It will probably be a terrible fight, and it will probably go to the cards.


March 26, 2010 - Posted by | Boxing

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