The Ship Be Sinking

Mouth Almighty

UFC 111 Predictions Addendum

So much for Thiago Alves. I had a suspicion this card was too good to be true. The latest reports indicate that we’re going to get Ben Saunders against Jon Fitch instead. For whatever it’s worth, as a ticket buying fan I’m ok with this; it sucks that I won’t get the chance to see Ellenberger who I like a lot, but Fitch is the bigger star and more important fighter in the short term so it’s better for the promotion to get him on in a decent matchup- and Saunders/Fitch isn’t a bad fight. As for Alves being pulled, frankly I’m glad. I would always prefer that commissions and doctors act extremely protectively and conservatively when it comes to brain injuries for fighters, and if Alves failed multiple initial examinations and has to be flown to a specialist for further testing, he clearly shouldn’t be fighting. My best wishes to him for this to be nothing, or at worst for a speedy recovery. That said….

* Welterweight bout: Ben Saunders vs. Jon Fitch

Not a bad matchup, especially on short notice. Saunders, interestingly, provides a threat against Fitch which Fitch arguably hasn’t faced since… Thiago Alves: aggressive kickboxing looking for a finish. Obviously GSP who Fitch faced in between those two is a fine kickboxer himself, but stylistically, GSP is often more of a point striker looking to keep guys off balance and set up his takedowns these days rather than a guy who’s going to try to Thai-plum you and knee your head off. Saunders is also, it should be noted, Fucking Huge at 170; probably as big as Alves if not as thick, he presents some of the same troubles to Fitch of facing a man who’s younger by six years and larger by a noticeable margin. That said, I’m still picking Fitch here easily- Saunders as noted in the previous post is not a wrestler and does not have notable takedown defense, he got taken down and smashed by Mike Swick, Fitch’s teammate who I’m sure Fitch is talking to, and while Saunders has solid BJJ Fitch’s may even be better especially when used purely for defense as he’s likely to be using it here. Saunders will probably get a few shots in early, maybe a few more than a few if Fitch is bothered by all the “king of boring decisions” stuff which has been coming his way of late, but eventually he’ll just take Saunders down and maul him. I’ll go out on a limb and say Fitch gets the choke in the third.


March 25, 2010 - Posted by | MMA

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