A Good Watch Wasted

All in all, a frustrating evening. I wanted to come here and write something about what an amazing fight Paul Williams and Sergio Martinez put on, but the first half of it was ruined by Max Kellerman’s commentary and the whole was hurt badly by yet another atrocious judging performance. It was a competitive fight with several legitimate cards possible; 119-110 Williams was not one of them. Another week, another boxing “controversy”, which is a euphemism for either thorough incompetence or gross corruption.

I’d like to be saying something good here about what a star Jon Jones looked like, but his win had the luster taken off of it first by Matt Hamill injuring his shoulder during the fight, and then by the fact that Jones did enough to earn 2 or 3 KO victories which he was denied by refereeing incompetence, only to be disqualified by the worst referee in the sport for having a single elbow stray a few degrees off target. Thus we were treated to the spectacle of a “winner” bleeding from 2 or 3 cuts on his face, unable to rise on his own after the fight and all but carried out of the ring by his cornermen, and a “loser” who landed every significant blow of the fight, looked dramatically superior in every phase of the game, and did more than enough to win only to be denied for no defensible reason by a man who everyone knows is worthless at his job and yet receives an endless run of assignments due to pure bureaucratic inertia. Lovely

Hell, I’d even like to say something here about what a barnburner the Kimbo fight was, except that in reality Houston Alexander spent most of the first round doing a Kalib Starnes and the other two rounds looked like two drunk guys in a small town going at it in the bar parking lot. Entertaining yes, but it doesn’t bear much dwelling on.

So here’s to Roy Nelson, whose big-belly’d KO of Brendan Schaub all but saved the night. It’s December; we may as well start celebrating a man who shakes like a bowl full of jelly even if it is a bit early. If there was any fight I came away from tonight wanting to see it was probably a mixed rules match between him and Chris Arreola.

EDIT: Let us also celebrate the guy on the MMA Junkie thread who described Kimbo vs. Alexander with the lyrics to “Circles” by Soul Coughing. Unexpected reference win. Better still considering it took place in the context of a thread which holds that Steve Mazzagatti is the best ref in the sport and Brock Lesnar was the first pro wrestler in MMA. Where do they FIND these people?

Yep. Sure.

“I think it was an innocent mistake, one that the Nevada commission will have to deal with, as well as Chavez,” said Top Rank’s Carl Moretti. “I don’t think he knew diuretics were banned by the Nevada commission.”

- Chavez Jr. suspended

It just amazes me that in 2009, people think they can still get away with that line. Diuretics have been banned since forever and people have been suspended for them before, off the top of my head Thiago Alves in Nevada in 2006, and for good reason- they’re a potentially dangerous weight-cutting aid, and they can also be used as a masking agent for steroids. Chavez getting busted doesn’t mean much; I probably won’t even remember it in a few months. But Carl Moretti coming up with the most intelligence-insulting way possible to excuse his fighter? That I’ll remember. Good publicity control there, guys.

Few Buys

Dan Rafael’s latest blog contains the news that the Zab Judah & Joel Casamayor-headlined low-level PPV show did a bit less than 5,000 buys. To put that in perspective, it’s roughly what Japanese pro wrestling does in America on PPV. Amazing.

Kevin Iole Delenda Est

“One of boxing’s most egregious problems has long been having two stars fight separate and less-than-quality opponents on the same night to set up a fight between them at some point down the road.”

- Kevin Iole

Yes. Clearly, one of the MOST egregious problems, this is. Worse than awful and sometimes corrupt judging like we saw last weekend in Ali Funeka vs. Joan Guzman, worse than sanctioning bodies creating 3 or more titles in each weight class- plus there being 4 sanctioning bodies in the first place- worse than fighters being fucked over by promoters, worse than the inevitable long-term brain damage suffered by many fighters, worse than the difficulties the sport has making new stars, worse than the ongoing decaying abomination that is amateur boxing worldwide and in the US in particular, worse than the tendency of some star fighters to dodge serious challenges as long as possible, worse than the lack of mainstream TV exposure, worse than the ludicrously poor heavyweight division (bar the Klitschkos), worse than the ongoing plague of comically inept mandatory challengers, worse than the other 10 or 20 things I could come up with if I were giving this more than a minute’s thought- tune up fights. That’s what he’s got. Tune up fights.

Kevin Iole is one of the 2 or 3 most well-known and publicly recognized boxing media members, and he’s completely fucking awful. You can almost make the argument that HE’S a bigger problem for boxing than tune up fights are. I have no idea why Yahoo persists with this man.

Epic Fail

Yes, it’s an overused phrase; but when you need to win one semi-tune up fight to secure the last huge payday of your career, and you get knocked the screaming fuck out in 2 minutes by a 36 year old ex-retiree, that’s fairly epic.

Looks like Bernard’s Excellent Heavyweight Adventure is go-go-go after all. I still want to see him against Adamek.

Ward vs. Kessler

I’m about done with the tournament aspects of this tournament to be honest, but the actual fights which it’s creating continue to be fantastic: Kessler vs. Ward is the sort of fight which ordinarily would take years longer to be built up to between the desire of fighters like Kessler to hide out in their home countries as national champions, squashing jobbers for good money, and the desire of the managers of prospects like Ward to avoid a serious challenge for as long as financially possible. For the sake of comparison, look at Andre Berto: a fine fighter likely to be competitive with almost anyone and regarded as reasonably similar in stature to Ward as a prospect, but who in 5 more fights and an equal amount of time as a professional has never faced a fighter of the stature of Kessler. Ward is taking a big risk here, and he deserves to be applauded for it.

But will he win? I confess, I have no idea. Both men in this face new challenges. Ward is facing a level of talent and ability far above his previous opponents, and in particular will have to deal with Kessler’s very good power and brutally effective jab, tools which have made him many people’s favorite for this whole tourney. Kessler, by contrast, is facing a serious world-class talent for the first time in two years, and last time he did so he was ground down against Joe Calzaghe on the way to his first ever career loss. That loss exposed Kessler’s issues with world-class handspeed and activity level, and Ward certainly excels in at least one of those areas. There’s also the question of where Kessler’s head is at, having all but taken two years off squashing no-hopers and going through promotional wranglings. On paper Kessler should win this, especially since at 30 he’s still essentially in the prime of his career and not the kind of past-it veteran who often gets picked off and overwhelmed by an opponent with lesser credentials but excellent athleticism. All the same, if Ward can move effectively and keep Kessler’s jab to range-finding and pawing uses, he can potentially use his speed to come in with hooks and leads as quick counters and keep Kessler off-balance. On the other hand, he could also mis-time that, walk into a big right, and have his questionable chin cracked. That’s what makes it such a great fight. If I have to pick I’ll take Ward in a minor upset on the theory that speed kills especially against a guy who’s gotten comfortable obliterating hobos of late, but if you’re putting money on this one you’re crazy-go-nuts.

Random Thought

Remember when people were saying that Manny Pacquiao was going to have trouble with David Diaz’s power at 135 pounds?

Rule The Time

I love familiar things. Not 15 minutes ago I got back from my local corner store, and I’ve stopped in so many times after big fights that without even asking, the guy behind the sandwich counter made my usual order when I queued up. It was nice of him.

Manny Pacquiao is not familiar. He is not nice, or pleasant, or kind, or anything else along those lines, not when he gets into a boxing ring. You may not realize it yet, but when you’re watching him you’re watching one of the very greatest fighters of all time. It’s not that he edges out or narrowly defeats boxers in heavier weight classes; it’s that he beats, destroys really, one man after another from flyweight to welterweight. That is unprecedented. Over the course of his professional career he’s added something like a quarter of his initial weight to his fighting weight and not just maintained relevance, or competitiveness- he’s succeeded in destroying world fucking class fighters at the higher weights. Shane Mosley is the generally considered world champion at welterweight; Cotto holds a win over him. Cotto was destroyed tonight by Pacquiao. Pacquiao has entered the stage where I don’t need to do anything to praise him except state accurately what he’s done.

He’s the best fighter I’ve ever seen. I don’t give a fuck what happens against Floyd Mayweather if that fight even happens: Floyd may beat him but he’ll never be him, never have that kind of record of dominance from one weight to another against one hall of famer after another. Manny Pacquiao is the best. He’s almost certainly one of the ten greatest fighters of all time, maybe one of the five, and if I live another 50 years- which I may- I don’t expect to see his equal. He’s the best fighter in the world. He rules the time, as much as a Michael Jordan or a Wayne Gretzky ever did.

He’s knocked out 4 hall of famers and beaten 5 and demolished more excellent fighters and belt holders than I can name. What can you say? He’s the best.

Annals Of Not Getting It

From Dan Rafael’s chat today:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Gutterdandy (NYC)

Larry Merchant deserves major kudos for shaming the NY Times into putting boxing on the front page! Way to go Larry — boxing ain’t dead, baby!
Dan Rafael
(2:55 PM)

I’ll tell him when I see him later.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Yes, the best argument against the perceived death of boxing is a 78 year old man browbeating a print journalism outlet. I mean, I love Larry and all, but Jesus. Really? Nah go make it, star.

Pacquiao vs. Cotto: The Best

Gonna be late and short, what can you do?

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is the most talented pugilist in the world, everybody knows this. He’s got the greatest athletic gifts, the most highly developed skills, and arguably the best case to be placed at the top of pound for pound lists; he’s the finest boxer today. But. There’s one accolade which still escapes his grasp, one which is a matter of public acclaim as much as it is of records and results, polls and prizemoney: the title of the Best Fighter Alive. That is the title which demands not just the talent and cool excellence of a Mayweather, but the killer spirit of a prime Roberto Duran or, well, a Pacquiao; and the incredible heart and drive to keep going of an Arturo Gatti; or, well, a Miguel Cotto. The man who holds that title, the one embraced by the public for his spirit as well as his talent and for his desire to conquer men and not just get through matchups- that man will be the winner tomorrow night. Perhaps Floyd will challenge him for that title; perhaps not. It matters little in the end, because Saturday belongs to the victor. On that day, despite the rise of MMA which has attained mainstream exposure but not yet the throne, the sports world will still stop and pay homage to one of the great old time events left: a championship fight between two of the best, a war between two hall of famers, to settle which of them is really the better man. One more time, and maybe for the last time, the sports world will turn and gaze in awe at what two men can drive themselves to, what two warriors can achieve and endure; and in the end they’ll say: there goes the baddest man on the planet. There goes the Best Fighter In The World.

I can’t fucking wait.

It’s a fight which will be either one thing or the other; I do not anticipate a back and forth war or a great exchange of rounds, and the only way I can see a major momentum swing is if Cotto badly outboxes Pacquiao early but begins to fade- which may well happen. Beyond that, if fights were card games this would be No Limit Hold ‘Em: it won’t take long to find out what each man is holding. Either Pacquiao is too quick for Cotto, or he isn’t; either Pacquiao can take Cotto’s punch and solve his timing, or he can’t. A quick look at what each man will be trying to do:

Pacquiao

Guns don’t kill people, speed kills people, and by speed I mean Manny Pacquiao. He has to be quicker than Cotto, not by a little, but by a lot. He can’t lurk inside, he can’t stand in front of the larger man, and he almost certainly can’t and won’t begin to throw combinations until he believes he can stun Cotto- if he can. If he can’t, or in the early going at any rate, he has to be in and out one bite and away, using a combination of quickness and footwork to keep Cotto off-balance, guessing, trying to hit things that aren’t there anymore and lapsing into a reactive mode. If Cotto does that he’s dead; but he knows that, and no one’s really been able to do it to him before, not even Shane Mosley. Pacquiao has his work cut out for him.

Pacquiao’s punch of choice will likely be an uppercut, thrown with either hand but perhaps tending towards the right for the speed advantage of the shorter distance to travel out of a southpaw stance. No one is better than Freddie Roach at picking up ticks, quirks, tendencies and bad habits, and if I’ve noticed the way Cotto earmuffs and leaves a space low and between the gloves there’s no doubt Freddie did long before me. If the uppercut can land regularly it’s a scoring blow which can help Pacquiao come in and out with his offense; if there’s enough behind it to stun Cotto, even momentarily, then it opens up the chance for Pacquiao to punch in combinations. And when he does that he’s the scourge of God. I think a huge amount of this fight turns on the effectiveness of that punch, and whether- when Cotto adjusts to it as he will- Pacquiao can disguise the blow and throw a right hook from a similar arm angle as a changeup. If he knocks Cotto down, that has a good chance of being how it happens.

Cotto

People seem to be expecting the Cotto of several years ago to make an appearance, the walk-forward-drop-a-left-hook-to-the-ribs fighter who showed up for the Ricardo Torres or Fonso Gomez fights. I don’t really think there’s a chance of that, and thank goodness- that version of Cotto would have gotten worked. While the weight cut to 140 likely contributed to his chin issues back then, the fact of the matter is that he used to get tagged more than the fat kid in recess and it wasn’t an accident- he had the same iffy defensive quirks he has now, but he was flatfooted with his weight leaning forward and thinking only about the next punch he was going to throw- not the one the other guy might be. Cotto in his last few fights has been very, very different, and maybe some of that was circumstances like being cut early against Clottey- but I think most of it is simply that Cotto is now a smarter, more disciplined, more skilled and vastly more dangerous fighter. When he fought Shane Mosley the best ever version of the old Cotto went back and forth, life or death with Sugar for most of that fight; but in the later rounds the new Cotto showed up and won the fight for him. He got up on his toes; he moved; he showed superior footwork for maintaining proper distance and throwing off the timing of a lunger; he pumped a vicious, accurate and powerful jab. Frankly it was almost Barreraesque watching an immensely talented but basically prototypical Mexican-style brawler become a boxer- and a brilliant one.

That is the Cotto Pacquiao faces, and that’s the one that can beat him. Where Pacquiao has to be physically dominant- faster, hit harder, have a deeper gas tank- Cotto has to be smarter. Pacquiao’s not stupid but for 3 out of every four minutes his brain will be sitting on a stool in the corner, yelling. Cotto’s will be in his head, working, staying sharp and looking out for things. His key punch is the jab: if he uses his footwork to maintain distance- and he’s shown he can against world-fucking-class opposition- than he nullifies much of Pacquiao’s offense especially in the early going before Pacquiao wants to throw combinations. He makes the Pinoy a lunger, a flailer, an awkward fighter; and that’s when the jab begins to work. Thud. ThudThud. Thud. Over and over and over into the face of a guy who’s now too off-balance to avoid it. It’s a scoring blow, it’s a punishing blow, and when a natural welterweight throws it over and over at a guy who began his career at flyweight, it may just be a fight winning blow. Everything else Cotto does offensively has to be keyed off of that jab, because it’s the jab which will create all the other openings: you throw a naked left hook at a Pacquiao who has his weight under him and your death certificate says “right hook” on it; you throw it hooking off the jab on a guy whose balance is gone, and half the arena falls silent or moans in fear.

But Cotto has to be perfect. He has to be, because if there’s one thing he’s lost in his change over from a brawler to a boxer, it’s the finishing. He hits as hard as ever, he wants to finish as much as ever, there’s no questioning his heart; but now his offense is keyed off of a punishing blow and not a potential knockout blow, now his gameplan is based as much around avoiding damage as delivering it. I fully believe that if Cotto hits Pacquiao with his best punch, Manny will be knocked out; but Cotto’s style means he has relatively fewer chances to hit that best punch than he did a few years ago. He has a lot fewer chances than Pacquiao. As noted above, Pacquiao may well get his ears boxed off for the first 7 or 8 rounds of this things, trying and failing to find the timing and looking kind of stupid as he flails around in the process. But that will not necessarily mean he’s out of the fight. He may not hit as hard as Cotto (or maybe he does); but so many more of his punches are thrown to finish, to try to stop the fight, that he has a better chance of coming from behind than most fighters. It’s a game of inches, and Pacquiao can be one inch away all night… until he’s suddenly not, anymore, and someone’s counting amidst the screams and cheers.

So who wins? What, in the end, is the deciding factor? 3 months ago I was absolutely sure that Pacquiao was going to win this. I’ve had a reoccurring image of him landing this ridiculous windmilling left hook on a lunge in against Cotto which is the beginning of the end, and while Cotto is among the best fighters in the game at fighting while hurt and staying competitive Pacquiao is THE deadly finisher in the world today. Now, writing this the night before the fight, I’m honestly not sure. Frankly it’s one of the best matchups I’ve seen in my time as a boxing fan, because I don’t feel remotely comfortable picking either man. Probably, if you’re putting money on this, the most likely turn of affairs is that Cotto gets off the deck in the 7th or 8th to win a thrilling close points victory, or else lose a similarly close call which many to most people disagree with. As for my pick….

…well I’ll tell ya tomorrow.

It’s going to be an amazing fight.